MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0097
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHWEST MO/MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
KS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 050630Z - 051000Z
 
SUMMARY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO FEED DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL KS...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. AN MCS TRACKING FROM EASTERN CO WILL
CROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KS...ALSO RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...INCREASING INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED ON A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FEED DEVELOPING CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL KS. THE LATEST RAP
SHOWS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE POSITIONED OVER THE
ABOVEMENTIONED AREA BY 10Z.  THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD BECOME
ALSO OPPOSITE OF THE CORFIDI VECTORS DURING THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES SHOULD BECOMES POOLED OVER THE SAME AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING...AS HIGH RAINFALL RATES OVERCOME INITIALLY HIGH FFG
NUMBERS.

MEANWHILE...THE MCS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CO SHOULD TRACK ALONG
THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY... POSSIBLY LINKING UP WITH
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING WITH THE MCS AS WELL.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39620291 39700274 39670223 39470199 39210194 39020202
            38950235 39060294 39620291 39430048 39319891 38709633 
            37889481 36779358 36309418 37259853 37359899 37720085 
            37920145 38090172 38290205 38380213 38640222 38950228 
            39070229 39190215 39520185 39430048