MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0100
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NRN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 051848Z - 052218Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WHERE
WARM ADVECTION FOCUSES SLOW MOVING CELLS IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY
MOVING MCS. THE MCS TRACK IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE MEMPHIS AREA TOWARD SOUTHERN TN AND ADJACENT
STATES. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL OVERLAP WITH THE AREA ALREADY FLOODED BY EARLIER EVENTS.

DISCUSSION...WE REMAIN MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT THE HEAVIEST
AFTERNOON RAINFALL WILL TRACK NEAR AND SOUTH OF AREAS HARDEST HIT
BY EARLY MORNING FLOODING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME OVERLAP OF
NEW RAINFALL INTO THIS AREA. AT 1830Z CONVECTION WITHIN A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME HAD GROWN IN SCALE ACROSS WESTERN TN...IN ADVANCE
OF A RAPIDLY APPROACHING MCS. RADAR LOOPS SUGGESTED THIS NEW
ACTIVITY WAS HAVING DIFFICULT PENETRATING THE STABLE BUBBLE LEFT
BY AN EARLY MORNING FLOOD EVENT FROM BENTON TO PERRY AND HICKMAN
COUNTIES...WHICH WAS FURTHER EVIDENCED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERY
ACTIVITY FORMING EAST OF THE STABLE BUBBLE. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
STEER ANY PRE-EXISTING OR NEWLY DEVELOPED MESOSCALE VORTICES
EASTWARD...AND MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RAIN OVER THESE COUNTIES. BUT
INTENSE RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED PER THE GFS AND WHERE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG COLD POOL ENTERING WESTERN TN
WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME RATHER WARM MID LEVELS TO SPUR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION.

FEW MODELS WERE HANDLING THE COLD POOL WELL. ONLY THE 00Z PARALLEL
NAM CONUS NEST AND HRRR DISPLAYED A REASONABLE SENSE OF CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN MOVING DOWNSTREAM FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. THOSE
MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE AS IT LOSES
LATITUDE...BUT COOLER MID LEVELS TO THE EAST ALONG WITH ENHANCED
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34978405 35398499 35798636 36088708 36458810 36518902
            35608985 34759005 34188901 34138730 34168492 34518394
            34978405