MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0101...RESENT FOR AWIPS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM...TX PANHANDLE...WEST-CENTRAL OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060622Z - 061222Z
 
SUMMARY...A FORMING BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LENGTHEN
ALONG AN EAST-WEST AXIS AND COULD TRAIN FOR A FEW HOURS DUE TO
INCREASING 850 HPA INFLOW.  REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A NEW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM FAR
NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE, WHICH IS LENGTHENING FROM
WEST TO EAST.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.50" EXIST IN THE
REGION, NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. 
CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR
EXIST...THESE PARAMETERS ARE ON THE HIGH END FOR THE WET
MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT.  WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700 HPA, AROUND 12C,
ARE FORCING THE CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE ACROSS
NORTHERN TX.

ACTIVITY ON THE WESTERN END OF THE BAND COULD BACKBUILD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO INCREASING 850 HPA INFLOW, WHICH WAS HINTED
AT IN THE 00Z GFS CORFIDI VECTORS.  A COLD POOL FROM ONGOING
ACTIVITY COULD STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH,
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP IN INTENSITY.  THE
04Z RAP HINTS IN ITS 850 HPA WIND PATTERN THAT THE BAND COULD
CONTINUE ELONGATING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF TRAINING WITHIN THE
DEPICTED AREA.  THIS EXPECTATION IS MOST IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ARW.
 INFLOW AT 850 HPA SHOULD RELAX AROUND 12Z, WHICH WAS ROUGHLY USED
AS THE VALID TIME OF THIS MPD.  HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2" IN
STRONGER CELLS AND THE EXPECTED CELL TRAINING COULD CAUSE REGIONAL
FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   35809833 35979991 36050215 35860337 35250345 35150245
            35060058 35029990 35009924 34989830 35509786 35809833