MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0102
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
419 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN AR...SOUTHWESTERN
TN...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS...NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL AND WESTERN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 062015Z - 070030Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOSTER A FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS FOSTERING MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY INVOF A STATIONARY FRONT WHERE THERE ARE ALSO
PWATS OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. THE FRONT COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS AND THE APPROACH OF A MID LVL VORT CENTER OVER AR
IS HELPING TO GENERATE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION IS TENDING TO BE ORIENTED W/E AND IS
SLOW-MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VORT CENTER.

GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MERGING AND LOCALLY TRAINING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT THERE TO BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34898720 34478578 33708425 32948448 32788528 32828612
            32918752 33238926 33579037 34149099 34789120 35329072
            35428979 35198834 34898720