MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0103
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
527 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO...WESTERN/CENTRAL NE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 062120Z - 070130Z
 
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MERGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN NEB AND INTO NERN
CO. INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION
COUPLED WITH ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING IS YIELDING A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIROMENT FOR SLOW-MOVING BUT SUSTAINABLE
CONVECTION. HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWLY A BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
ROCKIES.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY MERGE AND POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z NSSL-WRF AND
THE 12Z HRW-ARW SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MCS TO EVOLVE OUT OF
THE MERGING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATION THIS
EVENING THROUGH CNTRL NEB.

GIVEN EXPECTED RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES/HR AND SLOW
MOVEMENT...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY...AND ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY
CELL-MERGERS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   42819876 41619848 40580005 39890234 39770360 40220416
            41110380 42330231 43060087 42819876