MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0104
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
929 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...SOUTHERN KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 070120Z - 070700Z
 
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS DEVELOPING CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND CELL MERGERS WILL ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS VERY
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWEST
KS. THIS IS IN ASSOC WITH WEAK VORT ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
WHICH COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND PROXIMITY OF A FRONT SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THE ACTIVE AREAS
OF CONVECTION ESP OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KS AS
THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST. 

THE LATEST HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A ROBUST
INCREASE IN A NOCTURNALLY AIDED LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH 06Z...UP TO
NEAR 50 KTS...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONT TO
ORGANIZE FURTHER INTO A LARGER SCALE MCS. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES OVERNIGHT INVOF THE KS/OK
BORDER...AND SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE ACCORDINGLY
OVERNIGHT AND ESP NEAR AREAS OF CELL MERGERS.

THE 12Z HRW-NMM AND 12Z NSSL-WRF SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
06Z OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMTS. ADDITIONAL HVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...SHORT-TERM
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED AND THIS ALONE
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38369957 38399859 38109693 37559582 36749537 35659587
            35349755 35259870 35240009 35280107 35600231 35980255
            36490235 36970144 37950071 38369957