MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0105
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA...NE MO...WRN IL...CENTRAL IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 071807Z - 072307Z
 
SUMMARY...A WARM RAIN PROCESS WILL LEAD TO RAPID ACCUMULATIONS
WITH DECEPTIVELY LITTLE LIGHTNING. INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
CONCENTRATE THIS EVENT ALONG ADJACENT FLOOD BASINS WHILE
PROGRESSING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO
RESULT.

DISCUSSION...RADAR ECHOES HAD TAKEN ON A RECOGNIZABLE FLASH FLOOD
SIGNATURE OVER SE IA AND NRN MO. INSTABILITY WAS WEAK...BUT THE
HRRR FORECASTS AN AXIS OF UP TO 750 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO
CONTINUE WRAPPING INTO A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH THUNDERSTORM TOPS ONLY AROUND 30 KFT...RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO BE WARMER THAN -12 C.
ALONG WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS PROFILE WILL
FAVOR WARM RAIN AND EFFICIENT RATES...IN ADDITION TO WEAK COLD
POOLS AND LITTLE FORWARD PROPAGATION. AN INVERTED 800-850 MB
TROUGH AXIS NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW WILL HOLD CONVECTION IN
PLACE WILL ADDITIONAL CELLS FORM WITHIN THE INFLOW AND MERGE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND LATER EAST.

THIS SCENARIO OCCURRED EARLIER IN SW IA WHERE WFO DMX PASSED ON
PUBLIC REPORTS OF AT LEAST 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE HIRES MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS IN PRODUCING SIMILAR AMOUNTS OVER THIS FOCUSED
REGION THROUGH 23Z...WHERE INTENSE LIFT WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
PROFILES DESPITE WIDESPREAD OVERTURNING. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURES
WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE SCENARIO FOR FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MO/IA BORDER
MOST FAVORED.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40269277 39829202 39569029 39818856 40828824 41628888
            42078985 42109104 41749218 40989296 40269277