MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0107
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
718 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTHEAST AR...TN...NORTHERN
AL...NORTHERN MS...NORTHWEST GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 072305Z - 080315Z
 
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING LINEAR BANDS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER AREAS RECENTLY IMPACTING BY
HEAVY RAINS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS
THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS ATTM. MULTIPLE LINEAR BANDS OF INTENSE
CONVECTION WITH VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
NERN AR AND WRN TN.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BANDS OF STRONG MULTI-CELLULAR
CONVECTION SHOW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE ESEWD WITHIN THE
MEAN LAYER FLOW AROUND THE SRN FLANK OF A MID LVL LOW CENTER OVER
THE MID MS VLY. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LIKELIHOOD FOR CELL-MERGERS.
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID LVL JET FLOW/SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AIDED BY LOW LVL SWLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO REMAIN SEMI-ORGANIZED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL UPSCALE GROWTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN TN AND DOWN INTO NERN AL AND NRN MS HAVE
SEEN VERY HVY RAINS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND SO SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE LOCALLY VERY MOIST IF NOT SATURATED. RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE...EXPECT AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35569063 36228985 36518866 36618718 36488520 35588424
            34418509 33978652 34008777 34188877 34508993 35159071
            35569063