MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0108
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHEAST CO...TX PANHANDLE...OK
PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 070000Z - 070230Z
 
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING AND SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EVOLVE AND GRADUALLY MERGE AND ORGANIZE INTO LARGER SCALE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN CO AND ESP EASTERN
NM WHERE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. A COLD FRONT WHICH HAD PASS THE REGION
EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX AND
INTO ERN/CNTRL NM. DESPITE A RATHER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND
THE FRONT EARLIER ON...MOIST ERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASED DIURNAL HEATING IS HELPING TO REMOVE SBCIN SUCH THAT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM CAN
ORGANIZE AND MOVE DOWNWIND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

A VERY STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS NOTED OVER WRN TX AND ERN
NM...WHICH WILL BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE NIGHT OF
CONVECTION FOR THE SRN PLAINS AND A STRONG LIKELIHOOD FOR AN MCS.

THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
SUPPORT MERGING SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. WHILE THE MODE OF CONVECTION WILL
OVERWHELMINGLY BE SEVERE...THE INCREASED THREAT OF CELL MERGERS
AND SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOIST ERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SO
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37840383 38240338 38350267 37900206 36890188 35810203
            34670272 33940398 34050511 34620594 35510616 35990581
            36570473 37840383