MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0109
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1020 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN NM...NORTHERN TX...OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 080215Z - 080730Z
 
SUMMARY...ORGANIZING STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER EASTERN NM
AND NORTHWEST TX WILL YIELD A VERY STRONG MCS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF ERN CO AND NOW ADVANCING GRADUALLY INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE WHERE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTINUED TO
DESTABILIZE WITH STRONG LATE-DAY DIURNAL HEATING. A COLD FRONT
WHICH HAD PASSED THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS STALLED OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN TX AND EXTENDS WEST INTO ERN/CNTRL NM.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY JUST OFF
THE GROUND INVOF THE FRONT AND AIDED BY A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG
TO 4000 J/KG ARE NOTED AS OF 01Z AND CONFIRMED BY RAOB DATA.

A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS DEPICTED OVER NRN TX/SRN OK AND
EXTENDING WEST BACK INTO ERN NM WHERE ORGANIZING AND MERGING
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A STRONG MCS WHICH SHOULD FORWARD PROPAGATE EAST OR
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT AND ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT HVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS
WITH THE ANTICIPATED MCS...BUT THEIR SUGGESTED TRACKS MAY BE A TAD
TOO FAR NORTH...RATHER IT WOULD APPEAR A TRACK SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO
THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY WOULD BE MORE REASONABLE.
NEVERTHELESS...THE 18Z NAM-CONEST...12Z HRW-ARW AND 12Z HRW-NMM
SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
ISOLD TOTALS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 5 INCHES WHERE CELL-MERGERS
AND AREAS OF TRAINING OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH
RAINFALL RATES LIKELY UP TO OVER 2 INCHES/HR SHOULD SUPPORT A
DISTINCT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33310216 33630275 34060335 34700366 35310344 35850310
            36270237 36490146 36520067 36539974 36509851 36409715
            36139582 35769498 35139452 34239456 33789546 33549628
            33349731 33199885 33080019 33090124 33310216