MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0110
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...NORTHWEST TX....SOUTHERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 080600Z - 081000Z
 
SUMMARY...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BUILT
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NM, AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TX.  MULTIPLE POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING
REMAIN LIKELY IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST NM
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY OF TX TOWARDS FREDERICK OK
NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT.  CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS STRENGTHENING
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM CHILDRESS WESTWARD.  THE 00Z
PARALLEL NMM, 03Z HRRR, AND 00Z PARALLEL ARW APPEAR TO BE HANDLING
THIS ACTIVITY THE BEST.  WINDS AT 850 HPA OF 30-40 KNOTS ARE
INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM SOUTHEAST NM PAST WICHITA FALLS
TX, WHILE CAPES REMAIN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 1.50-1.75".  THESE
PARAMETERS ARE WITHIN THOSE NORMALLY SEEN WITHIN THE WET
MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST NM ACROSS NORTHERN
TX, WITH ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MOVING NEAR THE RED RIVER OF THE
SOUTH.  RAINFALL RATES OF 2" AN HOUR IN STRONGER CELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH CELL TRAINING ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE
ORGANIZED STORMS MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 KTS.  THERE IS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR BACKBUILDING ALONG THE CENTRAL TX/OK BORDER AS 850
HPA INFLOW RAMPS UP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  MULTIPLE PIECES OF
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOCAL RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 4-8" IN THIS
AREA -- A STRONG SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
6" IN A FEW HOURS WHERE CELLS TRAIN/BACKBUILD SHOULD LEAD TO
MULTIPLE OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
MAF...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35899891 35829595 35329449 34449393 33709423 33629495
            33629644 33419800 32999958 32400228 32330392 32620481
            33270498 33970449 34980278 35660074 35899891