MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0111
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
544 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080943Z - 081343Z
 
SUMMARY...A WARM ADVECTION BAND AHEAD OF AN MCV COULD TRAIN OVER
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE MORNING, POTENTIALLY
CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCALES.

DISCUSSION...A MATURE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
GENERALLY MOVING NORTH OF DUE EAST AT AROUND 35 KTS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED MCV, A THIN WARM ADVECTION
BAND OF CONVECTION BRIDGES BETWEEN THIS LARGER MCV AND A SMALLER
MCV FILLING ACROSS WESTERN AR TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR THE RED RIVER.  CAPE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 1.75", AND 850 HPA INFLOW
REMAINS 30-35 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING SQUALL
LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- CURRENTLY ENOUGH FOR THE WET MULTI-CELL
ENVIRONMENT.  SOME AREAS NEAR THIS BAND RECEIVED 2-3" OF RAINFALL
EARLIER THIS MORNING/LAST NIGHT, WHICH ELEVATES THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING INTO THE MORNING FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN OK AND
WESTERN AR.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM BEYOND 12Z DUE TO DECREASING CAPE VALUES IN ITS VICINITY. 
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT OVER THE NEXT FOUR HOURS THAT THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE INTO A STRATIFORM BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS CAPES AND 850 HPA INFLOW CONTINUES TO
DECREASE.  IN THE MEANTIME, 1-2" HOURLY RAIN RATES NEAR THE
CONVECTIVE BAND COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY SATURATED.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   33949696 34009760 34249787 35029754 35459629 35479369
            35159283 34559258 33929283 33829344 33929462 33899598
            33949696