MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0112
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
507 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...SOUTHWEST NE...NORTHWEST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 082100Z - 090030Z
 
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN CO ATTM..AND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE
IT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
ALREADY THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS...INCLUDING A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER ERN CO AND PORTIONS
OF SWRN NEB WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS/ENERGY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECTED SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS OF
STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MERGE WHILE GRADUALLY ADVANCING
EAST THROUGH ERN CO/SWRN NEB AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN KS.
CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE FURTHER AS DIURNAL
HEATING CONTINUES AND LOW LVL SELY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES UP
THROUGH THE WRN HIGH PLAINS.

FFG VALUES ARE LOCALLY RATHER LOW DUE TO RECENT HVY RAINS...AND
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR EXPECTED AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR CELL-MERGERS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40280119 39350130 38170189 37640280 37460363 37640435
            39060479 39750485 40600444 41460342 41670262 41490178
            40930134 40280119