MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0115
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL...SOUTH-CENTRAL TN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090822Z - 091122Z
 
SUMMARY...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN NORTHERN MS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A LONG-LIVED CELL MOVING IN FROM NORTHEAST MS, WITH THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED AREA,
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH AN MCV MOVING EASTWARD AT
NEAR 40 KTS IS ABOUT TO MERGE WITH A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE CELL
WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MS.  CAPE VALUES
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG, AND 850 HPA INFLOW IS CLOSE TO 30
KTS.  COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2", THE
CONDITIONS FOR THE WET MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT HAVE BEEN MET.  THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY THE BEST SO FAR HAVE
BEEN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP AND THE 00Z EXREF MEAN.

LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD BE STEADY INTO THE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CAPE VALUES WILL
SLOWLY EXHAUST, CAUSING THE COMPLEX TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  HOWEVER, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ALONG THIS SYSTEM'S
PATH ARE QUITE LOW.  A CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2" IN
STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35438849 35028908 34008935 33978718 34278584 35218606
            35468717 35438849