MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0116
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
525 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...THE ARKLATEX...SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN MS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090924Z - 091454Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHEAST TX, SOUTHERN AR, AND ARE RE-ENTERING NORTHERN MS.  FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN SEVERAL LOCALES WITHIN THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND NOW EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN TX ACROSS SOUTHERN AR AND INTO NORTHERN MS NEAR AND
NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 30-35 KTS,
WHICH IS FOCUSING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2" INTO THE
FRONT.  CAPE VALUES REMAIN 1000-2000 J/KG.  THESE INDICES BEFIT
THE WET MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO ERODE THE LINE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.  OUTSIDE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR, THE
00Z NCASE MEAN, AND THE 00Z REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL, THE RECENT
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE BAND'S CURRENT AND
EXPECTED LOCATION.  BEFORE THEN, HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2" IN
STRONGER CELLS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33229514 33169294 33278937 33868830 34898972 35229442
            34699731 33319766 33229514