MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0117
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
724 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHERN
GA/SOUTHERN TN... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 091123Z - 091508Z
 
SUMMARY...ONGOING FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS EXIST ACROSS THE AFFECTED
REGION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW CELL
MOTIONS. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW HAS GENERALLY TRAVERSED ALONG A
WEST-EAST STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS HELPED MAINTAIN A
STATIONARY AXIS OF CONVECTION FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN AR EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MS/AL. 

DISCUSSION...AS OF 11Z THIS MORNING...VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE
REGION SHOWED FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW FEEDING INTO THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WITH 30 TO 35 KTS OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS GENERALLY
BEEN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE OF THE MEAN CLOUD-BEARING FLOW WHICH AS
RESULTED IN NEARLY MINIMAL CORFIDI VECTORS. WHILE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY IS LOCKED CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...THERE IS STILL
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MUCAPE VALUES REACHING IN UPWARDS
OF 1000 J/KG.

IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING AS
THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE PER HOUR
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AND
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE FREQUENT. THE SITUATION WILL BE
RE-ASSESSED LATER IN THE MORNING GIVEN NEW MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS.




RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33239001 33429101 33489141 33539199 33919201 34219152
            34339082 34318992 34568876 35068790 35658681 35628563
            34778503 33888517 33418570 33048757 33038868 33239001