MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0119
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
538 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 092136Z - 100106Z
 
SUMMARY..CONVECTION CROSSING AREAS WHERE THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LESS THAN ONE-HALF IN THREE HOURS COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE LINES FOLLOWING THE AXIS OF BEST
INSTABILITY (WITH MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN MS) WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN THROUGH 01Z. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE CONVECTION THROUGH EASTERN AR AND NORTHEAST
LA.

THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD STRETCH THROUGH NORTHWEST MS
AND WESTERN TN THROUGH 01Z (BASED ON THE LATEST RAP OUPUT). THE
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THIS AXIS. THE CONSENSUS OF HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 1 OR 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN
THIS AREA THROUGH 01Z. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF
LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MS...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS WANES...SO SHOULD
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AFTER 01Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33298993 33369096 34609077 36398946 36448788 34878801
            33538829 33068860 33288994 33298993