MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0120
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1043 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS AND EXTREME WESTERN MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 100243Z - 100843Z
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL ONTO
INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS. RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5-1.5" AN HOUR
SHOULD EASILY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO NUMEROUS OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...THE COMMA HEAD OF AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE -- AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS -- IS PARKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL KS. A LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT HAS BEEN
UNDERWAY, BUT RECENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE FALLEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE 2-4" OF RAIN WHICH HAS OCCURRED SINCE
THIS MORNING -- DOWN TO ABOUT AN INCH IN THREE HOURS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION SHOW RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 0.50"
AN HOUR -- ABOVE RADAR ESTIMATES DUE TO THE WARM SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE, WITH THE LOWEST 9600' OF THE TOPEKA KS SOUNDING ABOVE
FREEZING.
CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
09Z BEFORE ERODING, WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE BETWEEN
1.25 AND 1.50". THERE IS JUST ENOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND 0-3 KM
WIND SHEAR FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BE LOW TOPPED. LOCAL RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH 1-1.5" OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT REGIONAL RAIN RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
AT OR ABOVE 0.50" AN HOUR. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL
VERSIONS OF THE 12Z NMM AND ARW ALONG WITH THE 01Z RAP INDICATE
LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 09Z. NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION, WITH A
QUICK 2" OF RAIN POSSIBLE LOCALLY.
ROTH
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...
LAT...LON 37149433 37189494 37629622 37619659 37569692 37599810
37979911 38959886 39759697 39519477 38949429 38129413
37149433
Last Updated: 1043 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2014