MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0122
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
945 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MD...SOUTHERN MD...DC...NORTHERN VA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120144Z - 120544Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY
BACKBUILD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW LEVEL INFLOW
INCREASES.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PWS OF 1.75-2 INCHES
CENTERED ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED INTO THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO TAP A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME CENTERED OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST...REFORTIFYING THIS ALREADY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.  AS THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW INCREASES...CORFIDI VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE...WITH SLOWING..TRAINING...BACKBUILDING CELLS POSSIBLE.

LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2+
IN/HR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37647738 38287765 38877765 39217750 39447683 39057643
            38237659 37937672 37637704 37647738