MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0125
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1221 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTHEAST NEB...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SD...NORTHWEST IA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN...WESTERN WI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 150415Z - 150730Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER NEARLY SATURATED GROUND WILL MAINTAIN
AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT
GENERALLY WELL ORGANIZED AXIS OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION
STRETCHING FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB NEWD INTO CNTRL AND SWRN MN. MANY
AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING NUMEROUS REPEATING OF CELLS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A ROBUST MID LVL
TROUGH EJECTS NEWD OUT OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND LIFTS NEWD TWD
THE UPR MIDWEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUN.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE LARGER SCALE WARM ADV PATTERN...AND
WITH A SRLY LOW LVL JET REACHING 50 TO 60 KTS...LOW LVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING
850 MB TRANSPORT UPWARDS OF 5 STANDARD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS COUPLED WITH A NOSE OF A MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM
SERN NEB NEWD INTO WRN IA SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF
CONVECTION AND WITH STRONGER MID/UPR LVL DYNAMICS ARRIVING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION.

RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HR COUPLED WITH THE REPEATING
NATURE/PERSISTENCE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND ESP WITH NEARLY SATURATED
GROUND.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43439700 44609606 45449484 45869341 45699222 45409141
            44779074 44259069 43769133 43109313 42319473 42019597
            42339699 42969717 43439700 
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