Graphic for MPD #0126
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0126
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NE...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SD...CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN MN...WESTERN WI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 150725Z - 151200Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
QLCS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM FAR SRN KS NEWD INTO NWRN IA...AND
THEN NEWD IN A WEAKER AND ELEVATED FASHION OVER SERN MN AND PARTS
OF WRN WI.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THE LARGER SCALE WARM ADV PATTERN...AND
THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A 50 KT
S/SWLY LOW LVL JET AHEAD OF THE QLCS. THIS IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR NNEWD UP THROUGH ERN KS/ERN NEB
AND WRN IA. ALL OF THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG MID LVL TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS NOW WHICH WILL LIFT NEWD IN A
NEG-TILTED FASHION THIS MORNING TWD THE UPR MIDWEST.

A COMBINATION OF MODERATELY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS AND DEEPER LAYER
ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE NEG-TILTING TROUGH SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN
THE QLCS THROUGH SUNRISE. ONE FACTOR THOUGH THAT SHOULD TEND TO
FOSTER SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CINH...BUT THE STRONG MID/UPR LVL DYNAMICS
SHOULD SUPPORT ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO
PERSIST SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR COUPLED WITH THE REPEATING
NATURE/PERSISTENCE OF SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND ESP WITH
LOCALLY SATURATED GROUND.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   45139310 45229186 45239063 45028944 44398923 43778995
            43229146 42289269 41829330 41509413 41389551 42029710
            43299707 44249627 44799472 45139310 


Last Updated: 333 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014