MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0130
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHEAST NE/WESTERN IA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 170630Z - 171000Z
 
SUMMARY...STORMS BACKBUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST NE INTO WESTERN IA
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN
AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN EARLIER.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD IN THE NOSE OF
THE 45 TO 65 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHEAST NE AND WEST
CENTRAL IA. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
RICH SUPPLY OF INSTABILITY (2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE BASED ON THE
LATEST SPC ANALYSIS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.90
INCHES. THE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL RESULT
IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH 10Z...BEFORE ITS STARTS TO SLOWLY FADE.
CORFIDI VECTORS ACROSS EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA DROP BELOW 10
KNOTS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF BACKBUILDING.
SEVERAL OF THE HI RES MODEL DEPOSIT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH 10Z. THIS MUCH RAIN WOULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING
FLOODING AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42239848 42559765 42739663 42789589 42749516 42519320
            41329320 41229662 41399828 42019862 42269851 42239848