MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0134
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/SOUTHERN
MI... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 180512Z - 181000Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF
BEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD
RESULT IN POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 10Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS. THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
SD... SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHWEST IA IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF 35
TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET (AS CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL VWP). THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MN...NORTHERN IA AND
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.

FURTHER EAST...SMALLER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER...CLOSE TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM CONEST PAINT AN AXIS OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHWEST MI
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WHICH SHOULD FOSTER FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM CONEST ARE CONSISTENTLY PLACING AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINES THROUGH 10Z. THE
ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES...SO FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...
DMX...FSD...ABR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44799795 44909643 44969305 44579062 44078786 43558609
            43458583 43188552 42558527 42108551 41848605 41798659
            41838731 41878810 42159017 42419380 42559628 43729811
            44819797 44799795