MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0135
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
700 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WI/SOUTHERN MI... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 181100Z - 181445Z
 
SUMMARY...ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS SEEN TRAINING
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
LOWER MI. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
FALL NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE FALLING ALONG A SHARP MUCAPE GRADIENT WHERE PWAT
VALUES HAVE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE. IR
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MCV WHICH
HAS HELPED SUSTAIN/INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. MODEL RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LAYER OF INFLOW AND ABOVE CONSISTS OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WINDS WHICH HAS HELPED FACILITATE NUMEROUS
REGIONS OF TRAINING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN MCV AND ELEVATED CONVECTION...THE NORMAL
ASSUMPTIONS FOR USE OF CORFIDI VECTORS DOES NOT APPLY.

MESONET OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN 0.50 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL RATES PER
HOUR WITH LOCAL DOPPLER RADARS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SUCH RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MCV FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. 


RUBIN-OSTER/JAMES

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   44929153 45129080 45068892 44578615 43858431 42988253
            42008174 41448257 42148441 42568619 42768804 43088900
            43539021 43949131 44929153