MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0150
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED.........WESTERN KY/IN/WESTERN OH... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 242012Z - 250012Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A FRONT IN AN AXIS OF
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TRAIN IN THE MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN AN AXIS OF 1.90
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL) STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KY/TN INTO CENTRAL IN.
INSTABILITY IS PEAKING BETWEEN 1000-15000 J/KG IN THE BEST DIURNAL
HEATING IN THIS AXIS. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OR MCV IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE MESOSCALE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS AS THOUGH ITS STARTS ERODING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...AND THE BEST MID LEVEL ASCENT TRACKS INTO WESTERN
PA/WESTERN NY STATE. BEFORE THAT TIME...LINES OF SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MOVING CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THE 12Z NAM CONEST IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE
QPF... PRODUCING AS MUCH AS 3.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL 
ACROSS WESTERN OH THROUGH 01Z.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD CONCERNING JUST HOW MUCH CONVECTION
DEVELOPS IN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SO FOR NOW FLASH
FLOODING APPEARS POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
OCCURS WHERE TRAINING CELLS MOVE OVER LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37368814 39108734 41168549 41718321 39288276 37258545
            36848761 37348812 37368814