MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0154
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
503 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHEAST PA/MID HUDNON VALLEY NY/WESTERN
MA/SOUTHERN VT/SOUTHERN NH... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 252102Z - 260102Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIRMASS AXIS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 01Z.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN AN AXIS OF 1.80+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER WATERS (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL). THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS MOVING
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO TRAINING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR INTO THE CONVECTION.
THE INSTABILITY WANES AFTER ABOUT 00Z...SO THE THREAT SHOULD START
DIMINISHING AFTER THAT TIME. THE ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALLEYS ARE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN MA...BUT TRAINING AND HIGH RAINFALL
RATES COULD OVERCOME THIS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
THESE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   41987744 43397455 43807346 44017156 43737074 43247071
            42797256 42207369 41417550 41197705 41587757 41957752
            41987744