MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0155
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
852 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/SOUTHEAST NY/WESTERN
MA/SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST ME... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 260049Z - 260500Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING ALONG AN AXIS IF HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PA...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY IN NY A ND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS FOLLOWING AN AXIS
OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL) AND JUST AHEAD OF AN INSTABILITY SOURCE ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PA...NORTHERN
NJ...SOUTHEAST NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION...AS MUCAPES DROP TO NEAR 500 J/KG TOWARD 05Z. UNTIL
THEN...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
SEGMENTS OF LINEAR CONVECTION MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW. THE CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 2-4
INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF TRAINING...WITH LOCAL 6
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   41167586 41837518 42607428 43337355 43687243 44057109
            44137015 43456965 42347144 41577295 41017402 40787502
            40947576 41197583 41167586