MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0156
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
618 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED.......NORTHEAST WY/EASTERN MT... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 262217Z - 270302Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
EASTERN MT AS THE CIN DECREASES AND MLCAPE INCREASES. THE ACTIVITY
IS FORMING NEAR THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWAT VALUES (CLOSE TO 1.25
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL). THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ENSURING A RICH SUPPLY OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR. 

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...AS SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM
CENTRAL ID. ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE VERY LOW IN
SPOTS (LESS THAN AN INCH IS SOME PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND
SOUTHEAST MT)...AND THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRODUCING AS
MUCH AS 0.75 INCHES AN HOUR TO THIS POINT. THERE IS A STRONG
SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL
WITH STRONGER STORMS AND IN AREAS WHERE THE ACTIVITY TRAINS. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   47250826 48550763 48930573 47540408 45190443 43460549
            43840749 45430832 47280824 47250826