MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0157
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
536 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHEAST CO/EASTERN WY/WESTERN NE/WESTERN
SD...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 272135Z - 280235Z
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL TAP INTO INCREASING AND
MOISTURE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS INCREASING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO NORTHEAST CO...AS THE LAST
OF THE INHIBITION DIMINISHES. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD HELP
PUMP UP PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NE/WESTERN
SD INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL AMONG THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE
(PARTICULARLY THE LATEST HRRR) THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NE INTO WESTERN SD. ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES AREAS AS LOW AS AN INCH IN SOME PLACES. GIVEN THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR BEING ADVECTED ON THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW...LOCAL 1-2 INCH AN HOUR RAINFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
HAYES
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...
ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...
LAT...LON 44870530 45930368 44690161 41440158 39580263 39630494
41310608 44870530
Last Updated: 536 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014