MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0158
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL NE/WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 272355Z - 280455Z
 
SUMMARY..DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FIRING IN THE PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER
NORTHWEST KS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAP IN FINALLY BREAKING...AND THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM IN THE PRESENCE OF A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NE.
THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL HAVE ACCESS TO PWAT VALUES APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES AFTER 02Z. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR COULD RESULT
IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES OVER AREAS WITH ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES.

THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT
LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR THESE AMOUNTS IS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NE.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38910121 40500136 42330066 42819931 42079793 40089783
            38429791 37369890 37480021 38190091 38920122 38910121