MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0159
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
103 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 280502Z - 280832Z
 
SUMMARY...AS THE SRN END OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER W-CNTRL KANSAS...TRAINING OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...04Z RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR GRI TO JUST EAST OF HLC AND NORTH OF GCK WHERE
IT INTERSECTED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IN WRN KANSAS.
WHILE THE NRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW HAS BEEN STEADILY PROGRESSING
NEWD ACROSS NEBRASKA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SRN PORTION
IN W-CNTRL KANSAS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SLOWING/STALLING WHILE NEW
CELLS CONTINUE TO FORM JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE CELLS ARE
FORMING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY STEEP
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9 C/KM AS SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDINGS
FROM LBF AND DDC. 

850 MB INFLOW NEARING 50+ KTS FROM THE S TO SSW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CNTRL KANSAS BY 0600 UTC
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO INTERCEPT THE SLOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. INDIVIDUAL CELL
MOTIONS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL COINCIDE WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING
LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO HELP TRAINING CONVECTION OF 1-2 IN/HR OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS. DUE TO POOR MODEL QPF OVER THIS AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE...BUT 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 0900 UTC.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38500133 39290035 40109939 40479852 40049764 39629760
            39009856 38249983 37510133 37810192 38500133