Graphic for MPD #0160
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0160
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
722 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN SD, CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 281122Z - 281722Z
 
SUMMARY...RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2" AN HOUR WITHIN AN ANTICIPATED
TRAINING BAND OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO COMPROMISE SATURATED
SOILS.  A FEW SPOTS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS MARKED BY BAROCLINIC
ZONES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS, WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT FEATURE MARKING THE LEADING
EDGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHT CYCLONIC SHEAR ACROSS EASTERN
SD AND WESTERN IA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75" ARE
WITHIN THE REGION, WHICH ARE NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
JUNE.

PER THE 09Z RAP, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS WHILE CAPE VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 1000
J/KG STARTING AROUND 12Z, WHICH SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION NEAR AND
BEHIND THE EASTERN ND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS A TOUCH OF CIN REMAINS
IN THE REGION INITIALLY PER THE 00Z ARW.  THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MIGHT
CAUSE SOME NORTHWEST DRIFT TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, COMPLICATING
THE SITUATION/POTENTIAL RAINFALL PLACEMENT.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE
FORWARD PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DUE TO SOME DRY AIR
SEEN IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS OF AREA SOUNDINGS...BELIEVE CELL
TRAINING WOULD BE THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR FLASH FLOODING.  HOURLY
RAIN RATES OF 2" AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE HERE.  THERE IS A MODERATE
SIGNAL WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR 2-3" OF RAIN IN THIS
REGION DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.  WHEN CONSIDERING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES, THIS WOULD NORMALLY WARRANT A LIKELY.  HOWEVER,
THE MEAN 850-400 WINDS ARE OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO THE EXPECTED
850 HPA INFLOW, WHICH COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY
SOMEWHAT.  A FEW SPOTS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   49020028 49069948 49079801 49099731 49099728 48789728
            47989762 47329807 46409881 44950025 45760102 46320117
            47300146 48450114 49020028 


Last Updated: 722 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014