MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0164
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1110 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IOWA INTO SWRN WISCONSIN AND NWRN ILLINOIS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 300307Z - 300900Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING CELLS WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH 06-09Z WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXPANDING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS E-CNTRL IOWA INTO SWRN WISCONSIN
ALONG WITH EXPANDING/COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WHILE THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DVN SHOWED A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR
ABOVE 900 MB...RAOB DATA FROM TOP IN ERN KANSAS SHOWED A MORE
MOIST PROFILE WHICH IS ADVECTING NEWD INTO THE REGION AS EVIDENCED
BY CONVECTION MOVING INTO SRN IOWA ALONG WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT...MOST NOTABLY 1.81
INCHES IN N-CNTRL IOWA.

MEAN STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 30 KTS IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH 850 MB
INFLOW...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...VEERING TO MORE OF A WLY
DIRECTION BY 06Z WHILE MAINTAINING OR INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE FROM
ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF ABOUT 30 KTS. A NUMBER OF HI-RES MODEL
QPFS INDICATE TRAINING CELLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE THREAT AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH 07Z...WHILE EXPANDING ENEWD INTO SRN
WISCONSIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS IOWA INTO SRN
WISCONSIN OF 1-2 IN/HR AND 1.5-2.5 INCHES IN 3 HRS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MET OR EXCEEDED.

OTTO  

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42458841 41469057 41699312 42629359 43329302 43839065
            43568836 42458841