MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0166
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 301928Z - 302358Z
 
SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL DELIVER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND STREAMS IN THIS REGION
ARE RUNNING FULL...YIELDING AN UNUSUAL PERCENTAGE OF SURFACE
RUNOFF AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS PARTICULALY
FOCUSED WITH NARROW NORTH TO SOUTH EXTENT ACROSS IOWA. THOUGH THE
SYSTEM WAS FORWARD PROPAGATING...IT WILL STILL DELIVER 1.5 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME...BASED ON RECENT RADAR ESTIMATES.
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF
TRAINING EITHER AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MCV IN NE IA AND ADJACENT
STATES...OR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER NW IL AND NOW SRN IA.

MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THE DEVELOPING MCV EAST AND
TURNING ENE AS THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES. THE RAP/HRRR FORM
MODERATE TO STRONG MIXED LAYER CAPE NORTHWARD INTO WI AS 850 MB
INFLOW INCREASES...AND RECENT HRRR RUNS EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAIN ALONG
A PATH FROM NE IA TO SRN WI. THOUGH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR HAS
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S WERE BEING REACHED...AND CUMULUS WERE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. RAP FORECASTS JUXTAPOSE STRONG INFLOW AND
MODEST MID LEVEL ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN IA THROUGH 01Z. SOME TRAINING MAY OCCUR
HERE AND IN A MORE ELEVATED FASHION FARTHER NORTH...UNTIL THE
SYNOPTIC WAVE PASSES LATER THIS EVENING.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43308810 43718931 43419113 42989227 42289312 41649335
            40889271 40609077 40948918 41458837 42308794 43308810