MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0167...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
 
CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 302340Z - 010400Z
 
SUMMARY..CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG MCS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER SATURATED SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IA...NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONG MCS SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
01Z. AS THE MCS CROSSED EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL...THERE WERE
SEVERAL REPORTS OF BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL IA...AND THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
OVER EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL. 

THE NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...WHICH IS SUPPLYING HIGH INSTABILITY (SBACPES IN EXCESS OF
5000 J/KG LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO) AND HIGH
PWAT VALUES (IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES) TO THE NEWLY FORMED
CONVECTION.

AS THE CONVECTION FILLS IN BEHIND THE MCS... MORE HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE THAT BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...WITH NORTHERN IL HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
THESE AMOUNTS AMOUNTS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD PRODUCE NEW
FLASH FLOODING...AND EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING.

THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 


HAYES

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   43489001 43408864 43118722 42088601 41038683 40568864
            40649127 41629223 43119160 43489001