MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0168
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
957 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/EXTREME SOUTHERN
MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020157Z - 020557Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WHICH HAS ERUPTED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAS BEEN SLOW-MOVING LEADING TO A
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES AMPLE
INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS OVER THE AFFECTED REGION.

DISCUSSION...WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING
FROM THE OH VALLEY BACK INTO THE UPPER TN VALLEY HAS BEEN
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE HAS STALLED
SIGNIFICANTLY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS
EASTERN OK ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND/OR CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS. 00Z RAOBS JUST SOUTH OF THE AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED
FAIRLY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. A MAJORITY OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SHOW THIS NARROW OF AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE VALUES SHOULD PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST. WHILE
FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...STRONGER PRECIPITATION
CORES MAY BRING RAINFALL RATES IN UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. OVERALL...THE 12Z SPC-WRF AND
18Z NAM CONUS NEST ALONG WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL RUN HAVE HANDLED
THE ACTIVITY QUITE WELL. THE 12Z SPC-WRF SHOWED THIS CONVECTION
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
RED RIVER BY 06Z. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   35959486 36769176 36459020 35549013 35229144 34879275
            34519429 34009574 33959691 34659750 35169701 35959486