MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0169...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
 
CORRECTED FOR LIST OF RFCS IMPACTED AND ISSUANCE TIME

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WRN TEXAS PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020758Z - 021230Z
 
SUMMARY...STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KTS COMBINED WITH A CORRIDOR
OF LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL INFLOW THROUGH 12Z WILL CAUSE A
SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM ERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WRN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH ESTIMATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
1-2 IN/HR...PER DUAL POL ESTIMATES AT KFDX...HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITHIN AN AREA OF INSTABILITY MARKED BY
1000+ J/KG ML/MU CAPE PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. THESE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN AN ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME MARKED BY A
RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 25-35 KTS AT 850 MB ACCORDING TO KFDX
VAD WIND PROFILE. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS WEAK STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN THE EFFECTIVE LFC AND EL OF LESS THAN 20 KTS.

RAP MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
INFLOW WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH 12Z HELPING TO MAINTAIN AN ADEQUATE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE ...BEFORE WEAKENING TO 15 KTS OR LESS AFTER
SUNRISE. UNTIL 12Z HOWEVER...STORMS WILL FEED OFF OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WITH CELL MERGERS LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH WILL POSSIBLY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF 2 - 3 INCHES IN
3 HOURS AND/OR 1.5 TO 2.5 IN/HR. WHILE THE COVERAGE OF FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREAT ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUEES. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34350188 33920335 33820490 34190556 35090558 35760509
            35940402 35310184 34350188