MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0170
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1009 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...EXTREME NRN TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021405Z - 021705Z
 
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCD WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE RED RIVER
VLY. THE ACTIVITY IS SITUATED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A W/E
ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS ATTM IS PROVIDING SOME FAIRLY DIV FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST WV IMAGERY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVOF THE FRONT WITH
GOES-SOUNDER LI/S OF -6 TO -8 AND MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG
SHOULD GENERALLY SUSTAIN THE ONGOING CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

CONVECTIVE CELL MOTION IS VERY WEAK AND GENERALLY TO THE
SOUTH...WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS INVOF THE RED RIVER OF ONLY ABOUT
5 TO 10 KTS. THIS COUPLED WITH PWATS OF NEAR 1.75 INCHES AS PER
GPS AND GOES-SOUNDER DATA WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES.

THEREFORE...THERE SHOULD BE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND EVALUATE THE 12Z
HI-RES MODELS TO ASSESS ANY LONGER TERM POTENTIAL.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34549905 34739733 34659554 34179455 33409477 33229561
            33269697 33369837 33669930 34149951 34549905