MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0174
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
503 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 032102Z - 040302Z
 
SUMMARY...SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ANALOG TOOLS SUGGEST
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL REACH 4-6 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES...AS ARTHUR AFFECTS EASTERN NC. RAIN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM 21-03Z.

DISCUSSION...MUCH OF THE AREA EAST AND NORTHEAST OF WILMINGTON
WILL BE SUBJECT TO HEAVY RAIN BOTH FROM THE OUTER BANDS AND THE
OUTER EYEWALL OF HURRICANE ARTHUR. PER THE ILM ASOS...ONE BAND HAD
PRODUCED RAINFALL OF ABOUT A HALF INCH IN 20 MINUTES...AND 1.3
INCHES IN JUST OVER 40 MINUTES AROUND 18Z TODAY. LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCH/HR ARE CERTAINLY EXPECTED WHEREVER
TRAINING CAN OCCUR. THIS APPEARED MOST LIKELY ALONG A ZONE
PARALELLING THE COAST AND LOCATED SOME 15 TO 40 MILES
INLAND...WHERE THE HWRF PREDICTS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND WHERE SOME EAST TO WEST TRAINING HAD ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED TO THE NNE OF THE EYE OF ARTHUR.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP EAST TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS...REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95 THROUGH 03Z. THE HIRES
WRF ARW...NMM...AND NSSL WRF ALL BRING PARTICULARLY INTENSE
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EYEWALL. OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM SEVERAL HURRICANES OF SIMILAR
TRACK...STRENGTH...AND SPEED...SUPPORT THE RAINFALL STATEMENT
INCLUDED IN THE NHC ADVISORY...EXPECTING ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
TO 8 INCHES...FALLING MAINLY IN A 6 TO 8 HOUR WINDOW AT A GIVEN
LOCATION.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34827559 35417604 35727650 35807713 35617789 35157857
            34517891 33967855 33757784 33837680 34447579 34827559