MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0179
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
540 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060939Z - 061239Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH CELL MERGER LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW MOVING AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THIS CONVECTION IS
IN AN AXIS OF HIGH MU-CAPE VALUES 2000+ J/KG AND PW MAX AXIS OF
1.75-2.00".  SEVERAL OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE WERE DEPICTING HEAVY
RAIN THREAT IN THE 0600-1200 UTC TIME PERIOD...ALBEIT TOO FAR TO
THE WEST OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF KS.  THESE MODELS DO SHOW HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUING AFTER 1200 UTC..BUT AGAIN TOO FAR TO THE
WEST.  THE LATEST HRRR FROM 0700 UTC IS SHOWING A BETTER LONGITUDE
AXIS FOR THIS CONVECTION...BUT IT ALSO SUFFERS IN BEING TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH.  AT THE MOMENT...WITH NO SIGNS OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS OR
DECREASING RADAR ECHOES...EXPECT THE THREAT OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2"+ PER HOUR TO CONTINUE IN THE SLOW MOVING CELLS BEFORE POST
1200 UTC WEAKENING BECOMES MORE LIKELY.


ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37769301 36969455 37129549 38369511 39719403 40309296
            40139164 37769301