MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0184
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
331 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NE INTO CENTRAL KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100730Z - 101330Z
 
SUMMARY...A CONSOLIDATING THUNDERSTORM BAND WITH HEAVY RAIN CORES
COULD TRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NE, CENTRAL KS, AND CENTRAL
OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CELLS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD AND
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION.  SEVERAL INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
COULD OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF CONVECTION IS ELEVATED OVER A STATIONARY
FRONT, NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN KS.  A TRAINING
BAND RECENTLY SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL KS, PRODUCING 2-4" OF RAIN
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS IN THE 35-45 KT
RANGE, 2-3 TIMES THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND, WHICH ALONG WITH A
SHARPENING OF WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AT 850 HPA HAS
AIDED RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND CELL BACKBUILDING ACROSS KS AND NE
OVERNIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.50-2", ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR MID-JULY.  UPSTREAM CAPES ARE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS AND NE, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE
ACROSS CENTRAL OK.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MEETS THE THRESHOLD OF THE
WET MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT.

PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 11Z, BEFORE CAPE IN THE REGION SLOWLY EXHAUSTS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.  CIN SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ELEVATED OVER THE STATIONARY
FRONT, CLOSE TO ITS 850 HPA SLICE, WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT DROPPING
DOWN TOWARDS CENTRAL OK AS 850 HPA INFLOW RAMPS UP THERE.  WARMING
AT 700 HPA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE 850 HPA CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE BAND.  FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ARE NEAR 10 KTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND CENTRAL OK, ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.  THE LATEST MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION MAGNITUDE ACROSS NE AND
OK, USING RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RAP AND ARW MASS FIELDS
AS GUIDES.  RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5" AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED, WHICH
COULD DROP A QUICK 2-4" LOCALLY DUE TO CELL TRAINING AS ADVERTISED
WITHIN THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE.  SEVERAL INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...
GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41810005 41369883 39989732 37849580 36419528 35569581
            35219686 35359819 35969890 36819917 38099930 39289960
            40730022 41320043 41810005