MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0188
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
911 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...SOUTHWEST NE...NORTHWEST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120100Z - 120400Z
 
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR CELL-MERGERS AND SOME
BACK-BUILDING WILL ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
LOCALLY.

DISCUSSION...THE LATE DAY VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING NERN CO AND PORTIONS OF SWRN NE. THE
ACTIVITY HAD BEEN FORMING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE EARLIER AND HAS
GRADUALLY BEEN FOCUSING FARTHER EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT
IS INTERACTING WITH A NOTABLY MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH AREAS FARTHER SOUTH DOWN TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE HAVE
SEEN THUNDERSTORMS TENDING TO HANG UP AND LOCALLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA WITH THE AID OF MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LVL SELY FLOW.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE CONVECTION OVER ESP NERN CO MAY WELL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE INTO A SOMEWHAT LARGER SCALE MCS WITH AN
IMPACT ON SWRN NE AND NWRN KS...AND AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF A
VERY STRONG W/E ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE.
THE 18Z NAM-CONEST STRONGLY SUPPORTS A MCS EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT ITS PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY BE TOO FAR
NORTH BASED ON LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS.

ON THE DYNAMICAL SIDE OF THE ENVIRONMENT...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
BE EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATER THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP
FACILITATE LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS
COUPLED WITH SOME INCREASE IN A NOCTURNALLY AIDED LOW LVL JET NEAR
THE FRONT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY POOL SHOULD PROVIDE
VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS.

CELL-MERGERS ARE LIKELY AND WITH SOME BACK-BUILDING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40729845 39799874 39300066 38810194 37950319 37470415
            37780454 38270447 38930433 39700444 40210475 40580522
            40830535 41070517 40880446 40760352 40770248 40990154
            41260074 41369956 40729845