MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0191
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
517 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO...NORTHERN NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 122115Z - 130100Z
 
SUMMARY...EXPANDING CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH 
SOME CELL-MERGERS THROUGH THE EVENING. SLOW CELL MOTION WILL
PROMOTE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY
AGITATED CU/TCU FIELD OVER CNTRL/ERN CO AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. LOW
LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE FRONT ITSELF IS QUITE CONFLUENT AND IS
ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW IS NOTED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS WELL...AND WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECTED...THE BOUNDARY LYR WILL ONLY DESTABILIZE FURTHER.

IR SAT IMAGERY ALREADY CONFIRMS SEVERAL COLD-TOPPED CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
GIVEN THE INTERACTION OF A THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE LOW LVL
AIRMASS WITH THE FRONT AND INTERACTION WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
CELL-MERGERS WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT THE FRONT RANGE AND
STRETCHING SOUTH DOWN INTO SRN CO/NRN NM INVOF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
TRANSPORT WILL BE NOTED.

THE 18Z NAM-CONEST...12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB STRONGLY SUPPORT SLOW
CONVECTIVE CELL MOTION THROUGH THE EVENING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-TERM RAINFALL AMTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
GIVEN A COMBINATION OF THIS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.

THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOOD CONCERN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39260400 38740391 38070396 37630402 36640436 35990469
            35650519 35780579 36830548 37340557 37600550 38140582
            38660599 39360561 40150553 40530561 40890552 40980507
            40690461 39800422 39260400