MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0193
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
855 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO...NORTHERN NM...SOUTHWEST
KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 130050Z - 130500Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS FROM NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO SOME
PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BE AIDED BY A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL
INVOF THE FRONT AND ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. IN
FACT...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE
FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SERN CO/SWRN KS HIGH
PLAINS.

MAX DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN ATTAINED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE
PERSISTENCE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
FOSTER ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS.
ADDITIONAL CELL-MERGERS AND BACK-BUILDING CELLS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY BEGINS TO
WANE DUE TO INCREASING LOW LVL CINH.

THE 18Z NAM-CONEST...12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT THROUGH 06Z...BUT THE STRONGEST AND MOST
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED BY THEN WITH A WEAKENING
TREND NOTED.

NEVERTHELESS...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING GIVEN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH/HR AND THE
REPEATING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND ESP OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. 

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39270387 38860390 38110361 37790299 37690217 38140089
            38010029 37530067 37110196 37000278 36910354 36530418
            35900467 35650516 35650561 35870566 36670552 37430564
            37850542 38400556 38920549 39570557 40100522 40230461
            39790398 39270387