MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0194
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MO...SOUTHEAST IA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN
IL...SOUTHEAST WI...SOUTHWEST MI...NORTHWEST IN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 130150Z - 130620Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED WHILE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR CELL-MERGERS AND TRAINING CONVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE LINEAR BANDS
OF STRONG COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION AND A FEW SUPERCELLS EXTENDING
FROM SERN IA NEWD ACROSS NRN IL AND INTO SERN WI AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE ACTIVITY IS INTERACTING WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LYR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE
VALUES OF 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
OF 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NEWD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN FACT...THE LATEST THE GOES-SOUNDER AND GPS
DERIVED PWATS SHOW A POOL OF 2 INCH PWATS OVER CNTRL/SERN IA AND
INTO NWRN IL ATTM.

ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS STRONGLY
SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EXTENDING DEEPER INTO CNTRL/NRN IL...SERN WI...SWRN LWR MI
AND EVENTUALLY NWRN IN BY 06Z IF NOT SOONER. THE SUSTAINABILITY OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY DRIVEN BY AN INCREASING SWLY LOW LVL
JET OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOC WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH OVER THE UPR MIDWEST.
GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT 2 INCH PWATS AND OVER 50 KTS OF LOW LVL JET
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING RATHER STRONG ALBEIT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
THERMODYNAMICS. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AT UP TO 2
INCHES/HR AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL CELL-MERGERS AND
CELL TRAINING...THERE WILL REMAIN AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

FFG VALUES ARE LOCALLY RATHER LOW...ESP NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KORD...SO THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...
MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   44338702 44438536 43948425 43048399 41778485 41018579
            40108805 39769102 39889377 40429418 40959335 41679206
            42669059 43518904 44128759 44338702