MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0195
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NE/KS BORDER AND IA/MO BORDER 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 130359Z - 130919Z
 
SUMMARY...NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER IS EXPECTED TO TRAIN THROUGH 09Z.  A FEW
OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING INTO NORTHEAST
KS AND NORTHERN MO, JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN
NORTH-CENTRAL KS.  THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO FORM TO THE NORTH THIS
BOUNDARY AT 03Z (DUE TO CIN ALONG THE FRONT) AND CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
2-2.25" IN THE REGION ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-JULY. 
INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 25-35 KTS WITHIN THIS REGION, GENTLY INTO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE 1000-2000 J/KG.  THE
ABOVE PARAMETERS MEET THE CRITERIA FOR THE WET MULTI-CELL
ENVIRONMENT.

RECENT ARW AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD FADE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS INTO NORTHERN MO BY 09Z AS
INFLOW WEAKENS FROM WEST TO EAST.  THE MOST RECENT 12Z AND 18Z
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATE SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL,
WITH A LOCAL 2-4" INDICATED.  RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5" AN HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  DRY AIR IN THE
850-700 HPA LAYER OF REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOULD LEAD TO CELL
PROGRESSION, BUT SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-STATIONARY,
THIS WOULD LEAD TO CELL TRAINING.  A FEW OCCURRENCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39579134 39459487 39529813 39969881 40519766 40959484
            40729123 39579134