MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0196
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 130442Z - 130842Z
SUMMARY...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST CO IS MIGRATING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS WESTERN KS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES, DRIVEN
AHEAD BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FOUR HOURS WHILE IT MARCHES INTO
WESTERN KS.
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO. WHILE 850 HPA INFLOW IS AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH, THE SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10
KTS, PROVIDING ENOUGH 0-3 KM SHEAR FOR THE WET MULTI-CELL
ENVIRONMENT. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE GUIDING THE ACTIVITY TOWARDS A
REGION OF 2000 J/KG CAPE NEAR THE CENTRAL CO/KS BORDER WHILE
ADVECTING 1000 J/KG CAPES OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING
NORTHEAST NM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.50", AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-JULY.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM AREA TO MARCH NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, DRIVEN AHEAD BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
THE HRRR KEEPS DELAYING ITS DISSIPATION, NOW INDICATING A TIME
PAST 09Z. THE LATEST RAP RUNS INDICATE THAT 850 HPA INFLOW SHOULD
FALL OFF ENOUGH BY 07Z TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY. CHOSE A COMPROMISE
TIME FOR THIS MPD'S EXPIRATION AND USED RECENT RADAR IMAGERY TO
ATTEMPT TO DEFINE THIS AREA'S NORTHEAST EXTENT. POSSIBLE WORDING
WAS USED OVER LIKELY DUE TO ITS INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO.
ROTH
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...
LAT...LON 37640176 37640313 38460401 39240371 39690293 39690212
39190116 38430101 37970118 37640176
Last Updated: 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014