MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0197...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CORRECTION IN FIRST DISCUSSION PARAGRAPH
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL LOWER MI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 130525Z - 130925Z
 
SUMMARY...A THUNDERSTORM BAND MOVING IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS
SHOWING EXCEPTIONAL RAINFALL RATES.  EVEN ASSUMING RADAR ESTIMATES
ARE HALF CORRECT, NUMEROUS OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORM BAND IS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MI FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.  UPSTREAM CAPES IN IL/IN ARE
1500-2500 J/KG AND STRONG 850 INFLOW OF 40-50 KTS IN EFFECTIVELY
MOVING THE INSTABILITY INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI IN AN
ELEVATED FASHION WELL NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT ANALYZED IN
INDIANA TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF ADVECTION FOG IN CENTRAL MI.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS BAND TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI, WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5"
AN HOUR POSSIBLE, WHICH EXCEEDS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. 
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS
OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH  

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43528256 43478543 43448645 42918625 42728626 42708562
            42698421 42678252 42938242 43458249 43528256