MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0200
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AZ, SOUTHERN NV, INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140733Z - 141333Z
 
SUMMARY...NEW CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND ACTIVITY MOVING
IN FROM NM WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF
AZ. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW INTO THE REGION SHOULD SHIFT
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING INTO SOUTHERN CA SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN THE FORM OF NEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WEST-NORTHWEST
OF PHOENIX AZ.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AZ FROM
NM, MAINTAINING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AZ FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

AS 850 HPA INFLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, DRAWING INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CA/SEA OF CORTEZ INTO SOUTHERN CA,
AND THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN AZ CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD MARCH AT
~30 KTS, THE COASTAL RANGES EAST OF SAN DIEGO SHOULD INCREASINGLY
BECOME TARGETED TOWARDS SUNRISE.  THE HISTORY OF THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOWS THAT HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1.5" ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 2-3" PER
THE NSSL QPE.  FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   35801450 35001225 34201109 33491137 32631187 32111218
            31771247 31771249 31781250 31871295 32191399 32451484
            32471484 32661483 32661482 32641521 32561626 32571669
            32611680 33471693 34231717 34751741 35331729 35841604
            35801450