MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0202
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
630 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AR...TN...FAR NORTHERN MS...FAR
NORTHERN AL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 142225Z - 150200Z
 
SUMMARY...SOME TRAINING CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE CONVECTION
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/WRN TN AND STRETCHING WEST IN A
BROKEN FASHION BACK INTO NERN AR. OVER THE LAST HOUR THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ATTAINING MORE OF A LINEAR MODE WITH A W/E
ORIENTATION.

THE LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION
IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND THIS
ENERGY WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WELL INTO THE
EVENING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...THERE IS ALSO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGGING RATHER SHARPLY SEWD INTO THE MID MS VLY...AND THIS SHOULD
YIELD AN INCREASE IN LARGER SCALE FORCING/ASCENT OVER THE AREA.

GIVEN THE WLY MEAN LYR FLOW OVER THE REGION AND THE W/E
ORIENTATION OF THE ACTIVITY...THERE SHOULD BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
TRAINING CONVECTION. THIS COUPLED WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...LZK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35498444 34938547 34568717 34528982 34799107 35249134
            36059002 36298797 36388566 36198418 35498444